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کاربرد نوع شرط:
- جایگاه : پژوهشی
- مجله: International Journal of Engineering, Transactions A: Basics
- نوع مقاله: Journal Article
- کلمات کلیدی: Game Theory,forecasting,Sustainable Energy Systems Planning,Renewable Technologies
- چکیده:
- چکیده انگلیسی: Intensified industrialization in developing countries has recently resulted in huge electric power demand growth; however, electricity generation in these countries is still heavily reliant on inefficient and traditional non-renewable technologies. In this paper, we develop an integrated game-theoretic model for effective power systems planning thorough balancing between supply and demand for electricity markets in transition. In this regard, a Case Study of Iran’s power system is used to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed planning approach and also to discuss its efficiency. Sectoral electricity demands of Iran`s power system as nonlinear functions are forecasted by applying times series approach while general information on economical, technological, political and electricity market conditions of sectors is also given. The brief look into the planning results shows that the proposed approach provides not only competitive conditions for renewable technologies expansion but also a robust one compared to the traditional (cost-based) approach.
- انتشار مقاله: 11-10-1348
- نویسندگان: H. Shakouri G.,M.R. Amin Naseri,Najmeh Neshat
- مشاهده
- جایگاه : پژوهشی
- مجله: Advances in Industrial Engineering
- نوع مقاله: Journal Article
- کلمات کلیدی: Artificial neural networks (ANNs),fuzzy regression,modeling,Natural gas price
- چکیده:
- چکیده انگلیسی: In this paper, a new approach of modeling for Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models based on the concepts of ANN and fuzzy regression is proposed. For this purpose, we reformulated ANN model as a fuzzy nonlinear regression model while it has advantages of both fuzzy regression and ANN models. Hence, it can be applied to uncertain, ambiguous, or complex environments due to its flexibility. In addition, the case study is brought in order to clearly show the way this approach could be utilized. The price of the liquid gas in Japan’s market (the world’s largest natural gas importer) is investigated based on the proposed approach. Based on the results, it is concluded that the performance of proposed model is acceptable; moreover, it can be deal with uncertain and complex environments as a clear box model.
- انتشار مقاله: 16-02-1391
- نویسندگان: Ali Torabi,Shima Pashapour Nazari,Najmeh Neshat
- مشاهده