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کاربرد نوع شرط:
- جایگاه : پژوهشی
- مجله: International Journal of Engineering, Transactions A: Basics
- نوع مقاله: Journal Article
- کلمات کلیدی: Risk Identification,TOPSIS,Fuzzy,ANP,Project Risk Assessment,Power Plant Project,Engineer,Procure,Construct Projects
- چکیده:
- چکیده انگلیسی: Economic growth in developing countries has resulted in increasing demand for infrastructure projects like power plants. To meet these development needs, the government of Iran has engaged companies to carry out power plant projects. While many papers have been written on the subject of project risk management, little information exists on the actual use of risk management in practice. The primary objective of this paper is to identify and rank the risks in these power plant projects. The proposed model allows risks to be ranked based on management priorities using a combined fuzzy analytic network process (fuzzy-ANP) and fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (fuzzy-TOPSIS) method. Probability and impact are two commonly used criteria in project risk management. However, these criteria do not sufficiently address all aspects of project risk. Moreover, there may be relations and dependencies among the various criteria. Therefore, we proposed a hierarchical structure for ranking risk in power-plant projects. The proposed structure can consider dependence among the different criteria. We use fuzzy-ANP for calculating weights. The outputs of fuzzy-ANP calculations are used in a fuzzy-TOPSIS procedure for the evaluation of important risks. A case study of a power plant project is presented to demonstrate the applicability and performance of the proposed model. More than 100 risks were identified and categorized according to their source and to their relative impact on the project. We evaluated important risks based on the fuzzy-ANP and fuzzy-TOPSIS method. In addition, we used a sensitivity analysis to discuss and explain the results of the method. The proposed method is a suitable approach when performance ratings and weights are vague and imprecise
- انتشار مقاله: 11-10-1348
- نویسندگان: Fereydoon Honari Choobar,Ahad Nazari,Ebrahim Rezaee Nik
- مشاهده
- جایگاه : پژوهشی
- مجله: Advances in Industrial Engineering
- نوع مقاله: Journal Article
- کلمات کلیدی: Risk,uncertainty,Risk management model,Project management,Industrial projects
- چکیده:
- چکیده انگلیسی: Uncertainties in industrial environments can cause considerable complexities, during the implementation and management of projects. So, performing a risk management model in such environments has become inevitable. In such circumstances, many risk management models have been introduced in literature, which majorities of them are general, while some of them are developed to be applied to specific organizations. In order to develop an effective risk management model, the main characteristics of projects like types of projects, project management processes and procedures, organizational structure and organizational roles and responsibilities should be taken to the account. The aim of this paper is to develop a risk management model for project based organization. The studied organization has several subsidiary companies and is responsible for management and execution of major industrial projects. In this research feasibility of implementation of risk management in the organization is studied, considering the main characteristics of its projects. In order to conduct the research, risk management models presented in literature is reviewed and investigated. Then, the requirements of risk management processes are examined. Moreover, organizational structure and characteristics related to risk management processes are identified by documents review and interview method. Afterward, the organization's status is evaluated and analyzed via questionnaire and interview method. In this research using existing risk management models, a risk management model which consist the processes, their details and structures is developed and verified. The proposed model has six steps consist of risk management planning, risk identification, decision making, risk response planning, and reporting system. Moreover, a risk breakdown structure (RBS) is developed in two levels. The first level consists of technical, cost and financial, organizational, procurement and contractual and external risks. The research’s findings shows that risks resulted from internal contracts are the most important ones. Furthermore, some suggestions are proposed for implementing the model, based on advantages and improvement potentials of the organization. Based on the research’s findings, organizational requirements for performing risk management processes consist of management's belief in risk management, organizational attitude and culture, risk management background in the organization, related laws and regulations, possibility of access to data and information related to risk management processes, availability of software and its requirements, organizational capability for establishing risk management teams, accordance of managers responsibilities with their authorities. It is found that management's belief in risk management with the score of 70%, and related regulations with the score of zero are the most and the least important requirements, respectively. Overall, this paper introduces a general method for developing a risk management model in any organization. Also, a risk breakdown structure and a risk management model for industrial project based organizations are developed, with some suggestion for execution of each process. Moreover organizational requirements for implementing the model are explained. The findings of this research can be used in similar high-tech organizations, with limited financial and human resources and vast internal and external communications.
- انتشار مقاله: 09-02-1391
- نویسندگان: Ahad Nazari,Majid Jaberi,Mohsen Sadegh Amal Nik
- مشاهده